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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."