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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.